People Say Panic, Tesla Keeps Cutting Prices

The message people/the media is trying to convey is that the whole EV industry is in trouble. To support that position, they say Tesla keeps cutting prices. They are mis-reading the facts.

Yes, EV prices continue to drop. For GM and Ford, yes, they are in trouble because they can’t produce EVs at the prices they are attempting to sell them for. And, yes, lots of EV manufacturers in China are in financial trouble. But, as all this is happening, EV sales volume around the world continues to increase. There are two things at play here.

First, battery prices continue to drop. Tony Seba predicted this by 2027 but it looks like it is happening this year. CATL, the world’s biggest battery manufacturer, continues to gain market share. They also continue to improve their batteries and decrease the prices. As the battery cost has been 35-40% of the total cost of an EV, this is driving the price cuts. The Electric Viking talks about this.

In the case of Tesla, there is another reason for falling car prices: manufacturing efficiency. The use of a GigaPress reduces the number of parts and amount of labor to make each car. Additionally, Tesla is now manufacturing at such volume that their cost of materials will be lower than those companies producing vehicles in lower volume. While BYD actually makes more cars (about half are hybrids) than Tesla, they have many more models which means lower parts volume for model-specific parts.

Finally, more small EVs entering the market (for example, the Dolphin and Seagull from BYD) is reducing the average price of an EV. While you may still need a large vehicle, some people don’t. With these smaller EVs entering the market, EV volume will increase.

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